This article will explore the possible causes of this explosion, from Russia’s reckless act to the potential spillover to an ongoing conflict between authoritarian and democratic regimes. It will also consider the impact on neighbouring countries. In particular, this article will discuss the possibility of war involving a third party.
Russia’s reckless act to fire imprecise missiles near the border
The United States and NATO have both condemned Russia’s reckless act to fire missiles near the Polish border, although the two sides disagree on the exact origin of the missiles. The Baltic states have issued statements condemning the missiles, citing the collective defense agreement. In addition, the State Department is now sanctioning three companies, including the Wagner Group. The sanctions will prevent these companies from using U.S. property to conduct activities related to missiles and drones.
The news media have reported that Russian troops are advancing toward the city of Mariupol, which is on the Sea of Azov. According to the Maritime Executive, the Russian Navy is carrying out an amphibious assault near the Ukrainian port city. A CNN report states that Russian forces are located 31 miles from Mariupol. The National Post says the Russians are also near the Zaporizhzhzhia nuclear power plant.
The incident has prompted Poland to summon the Russian ambassador and demand an investigation. While Russia denies responsibility, the consequences of a deliberate attack would be wider and more serious. Poland is a member of NATO and an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all. The NATO ambassadors are expected to meet in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss the situation in Poland.
War between democracies and authoritarian regimes
Many researchers have examined the relationship between democracy and war. Some have concluded that democracies are less likely to wage war than authoritarian regimes. Other research has found that war is not a necessary part of a democracy’s strategy. The authors of this book argue for a pragmatic approach, one which will not result in an increase in violence.
The economic effects of violence are less evident among full democracies, while the remaining four government types saw an increase from 2007 to 2019. In 2019, authoritarian governments spent the most on the military, at 3.4% of GDP. In contrast, full democracies spent only 1.2% of their GDP. The differences in military spending are evident from the fact that authoritarian populations have lower confidence in their military than the population of full democracies.
A war between democracies and authoritarians is a potentially deadly conflict. However, it is important to distinguish between democracy and authoritarianism. A democracy’s survival will depend on how it manages to protect its democracy from the authoritarian regime.
Impact on neighbouring countries
The explosion in Poland has triggered fears of further conflict in the region. The incident has heightened tensions as the G20 summit in Indonesia begins. President Emmanuel Macron, who is currently attending the G20 meeting, said that there is convergence within the G20 to de-escalate the situation. France expressed its full solidarity with Poland and pledged to work closely with the Polish government to understand the circumstances surrounding the explosion.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that the organisation is closely monitoring the situation and will consult with allies if required. NATO’s principle of collective defence means that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all members. However, this Article 5 has only been used once before – after the 9/11 attacks – and a country must decide to activate it.
The Polish government was cautious after the attack. It raised the alert level for its military in case of another attack. Russia’s defence ministry has denied that its missiles were responsible for the blast in Poland. The country’s energy minister said Tuesday’s missile attack had caused widespread blackouts. The Russian ambassador to Poland has been summoned to explain what happened.
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